What if you built it and they didn’t come? That’s basically my assessment of the current state of the carbon credit marketplace as we have launched well into 2026.
I have been involved with four organizations in this area offering carbon credits to the private sector. The results were underwhelming to say the least. I have two primary observations.
Tough political climate. Not to get political, but somewhere along the way sustainability became a four-letter cuss word just like DEI. etc. This waning appetite to embrace carbon credits has been devastating to the cause. Not sure when or if this will improve.
Economic climate. Part and partial to the political climate is the economic climate. The sale of carbon credits, at the end of the day, is voluntary so it comes down to your investment thesis. Does it make sense to purchase carbon credits? Sounds of crickets here folks.
Carbon Credit Types
Carbon credits based on petroleum outputs. Can be 5x to 10x the costs of nature credits.
Nature credits are based on cow poop and corn fields and are significantly cheaper.
The case for carbon credits is they deliver more meat on the bone than nature credits.
The case again carbon credits is corporate buyers don’t care. They want corporate PR feel good love taps that we are unfucking the world at the lowest possible cost.
Carbon Credit Purchasers. My experience is that there are two camps:
Corporate - Getting yes sir’ed out the back door. I personally drew on my tech background and sold into Microsoft, Dell and others. They didn’t bite. If anything, they knew enough to know that nature-based credits are typically priced for less than half of the petroleum-based credits and it still let these Chief Sustainability Officers check their “goodness” report card. I also sold into the celebrity crowd where those private jets flying to concert performances are some of the worst offenders on carbon credit emissions. Still no takers.
One organization even invested in carbon credit insurance. There are darker elements of the carbon credit market with backroom players creating FUD. It also engaged a rating system like Standard and Poor to have investors look at third-party analysts scoring (I really like this part)
Individual Customers- I’ve seen it all from getting grandmas to “green” their children and grand children with carbon offsets. It’s an earth steward thang to green your baby. Saw other messaging about green your car and green your home. Excellent messaging but that and two bits will get you a ride on the T in Boston.
Bottom line on carbon credit sales. One client berated the sales team for not selling any/enough. The team was fantastic. My counter is that we were trying to sell something people didn’t want. In two other cases, I went “bear market” on carbon credits and convinced these investors to consider alternatives like the red hot A.I. play (run fast). Guess that’s why I make the big bucks as an advisor lol.
Finally the peanut gallery always offers up opinions. Basically there is a tribe out there communicating it doesn’t matter. A plugged well that no longer spews methane and sodium chloride does not even close the gap with what overseas countries and companies (e.g. Asia) spew in a day. Just reporting.
I’ll end on this. I believe in sustainability (hey I’m in Austin so fuck y’all) but the journey is long with many twists and turns. I’ll continue to monitor this opportunity.
Harry Brelsford is a technology analyst in Austin, TX.